Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.209045 2.579596 2.990680 3.480210 4.046979 4.682254 5.448103
2025-12-28 1.716726 2.236056 2.874547 3.715697 4.793197 6.125713 7.897480
2026-01-04 1.342662 1.913846 2.678000 3.771438 5.292138 7.328233 10.257468
2026-01-11 1.093748 1.682869 2.529324 3.827742 5.762141 8.529244 12.779028
2026-01-18 0.905242 1.489340 2.382590 3.838324 6.140408 9.626976 15.291510
2026-01-25 0.756636 1.322229 2.236987 3.810788 6.435506 10.617470 17.758726
2026-02-01 0.606757 1.121714 1.999145 3.586622 6.367654 11.010738 19.310992
2026-02-08 0.505690 0.984764 1.841217 3.464068 6.438113 11.619984 21.278067
2026-02-15 0.437715 0.894586 1.748537 3.437351 6.663591 12.509897 23.831569
2026-02-22 0.401099 0.857128 1.745181 3.571824 7.196788 14.005509 27.659424
2026-03-01 0.351965 0.785573 1.664365 3.542315 7.409188 14.928562 30.524289
2026-03-08 0.308258 0.717440 1.579151 3.489251 7.563576 15.752804 33.291603
2026-03-15 0.272713 0.662610 1.516643 3.481974 7.827841 16.862100 36.852116
2026-03-22 0.263199 0.665649 1.580011 3.758609 8.739420 19.420869 43.777265
2026-03-29 0.239453 0.630694 1.553079 3.829278 9.210943 21.118575 49.102700
2026-04-05 0.218071 0.597474 1.524576 3.891382 9.671528 22.851655 54.737688
2026-04-12 0.196513 0.559636 1.478630 3.903833 10.016660 24.369613 60.085140
2026-04-19 0.175665 0.519619 1.420540 3.876418 10.260367 25.683640 65.128590
2026-04-26 0.148441 0.456570 1.292628 3.648695 9.969274 25.690343 67.034889
2026-05-03 0.129368 0.413021 1.208990 3.524147 9.923659 26.286154 70.469286
2026-05-10 0.116441 0.385165 1.163696 3.497001 10.131793 27.543191 75.743638
2026-05-17 0.110583 0.377969 1.175771 3.633740 10.807237 30.087432 84.693093
2026-05-24 0.099929 0.353342 1.132822 3.603738 11.010935 31.414459 90.572065